What are the prospects for the US economy and monetary and monetary policy?
The US economy has recovered relatively strongly. But there is great uncertainty in development. A more restrictive monetary policy could act as a barrier to growth in 2022. The central bank’s rate hikes could also put pressure on growth. However, economic growth must be sufficient to sustain steady employment growth until 2022.
Despite the slowdown in growth over the long term, the US economy as a whole appears to be less volatile, with the global financial crisis and epidemics acting as the only events that could disrupt the long-term course. Potential reasons for the low volatility are increasing influence from revolving sectors such as high-performance monetary and tax policies and manufacturing. It is important to have a long-term perspective on whether technological advances will increase the rate of economic growth and lead to new investment opportunities, including the latest advances in biotechnology that have contributed to the rapid development of the Kovit-19 vaccine.
What news should we produce with inflation?
The high rate of inflation is a risk observed by many investors and the US Federal Reserve. But we expect inflation to fall in the United States by 2022 as monetary and monetary policies become more restrictive and restrictions on supply and labor availability ease.
Apart from the general trends of economic growth and inflation, what else can affect interest rates over time?
An important factor to consider is the transition to a carbon-free economy. Estimates vary, but the amount of additional investment in energy infrastructure could run from $ 2 to $ 2.5 trillion a year in the long run – an additional 2 percentage points to current global GDP. The scale of the increase in investment in energy infrastructure could offset the general investment deficit of the past decade, and it has not yet taken into account the additional investments required in sectors other than direct energy supply. We believe that agriculture, for example, also requires significant investment.
What are the long-term opportunities for work and productivity in the context of epidemics?
Outside the travel and tourism sectors, some large U.S. companies report being badly damaged by the economic shock triggered by the epidemic. You seem to be relatively optimistic about the future. Two short-term challenges – supply chain barriers and labor shortages – are accelerating long-term strategic change. Many companies have been diversifying their supply chains for economic reasons, especially outside China for some time. The epidemic has accelerated the current course.
In the work world, many corporate leaders in the United States see long-term changes in the relationships between companies and their employees. Many companies have been struggling to find and retain qualified employees for a long time. Competition for these workers is likely to increase further. Workers have increasingly strong bargaining power. Many employers respond by expanding their workforce and investing in technology that helps workers produce more in the long run. Companies assume that labor will become more expensive over time, so they end up looking for ways to produce more with fewer workers.
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