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Coronavirus - tends to fall back in the other direction

Coronavirus – tends to fall back in the other direction

On Wednesday, for the first time in weeks, the seven-day infection is likely to be lower than the day before. The health agency Ages had its highest daily value so far of 16,631 cases on November 16, which is out of Wednesday’s seven-day count. The number of infections has decreased since November 16, and 11,109 cases were reported on November 22.

A look at the effective reproduction number trajectory also reveals that this has decreased for about two weeks, but is still higher than 1. This number indicates the average number of people infected than an infected person. If it is above 1, the number of cases increases; If it is lower, it goes down. For reasons of calculation, this important epidemiological determinant interacts with a small time delay, and thus the incidence can decrease on a daily basis, although the value is still above 1.

The number of first vaccinations is declining again

The number of seriously ill people in hospitals continues to rise. Only about two weeks after the shift in infection, the number of ICU patients is expected to decline. This is approximately the time from infection to admission to the intensive care unit. The situation is still very critical, especially in Salzburg and Upper Austria. It can be assumed that here the maximum occupancy values ​​of the previous waves will be exceeded. Not in Vienna, where 116 people were last in the intensive care unit, in the spring there were about twice as many.

If the first drop in the number of cases in weeks actually occurred on Wednesday, it cannot be attributed to the lockdown that has been in effect since Monday, especially since assessment of PCR results is still lagging in some federal states.

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Especially since the closure of unvaccinated people (November 15), a significant decrease in mobility has been observed. However, the number of first vaccinations is falling again. 8,700 of them were administered on Monday. On Monday a week ago there were nearly twice that number.(Sir)