The general weather is determined by areas of strong high pressure that frequently block westerly winds and jet over the Atlantic and direct cold or cold air into central Europe. The cold air from the north is also slowly getting warmer, but in recent years it has been much warmer at this time of year.
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The cold month of April is followed by the cold month of May
Unfortunately, the weather pattern continues into May. This means that May will also be very cold. Even in June, there are still signs of cooler temperatures in terms of season.
There are actually meteorologists who are talking about the North Atlantic flagellum. But this has nothing to do with the cold air compared to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. The curve actually resembles a whip. The curve means that areas of high pressure last for a long time and the jet is interrupted only briefly. This weather will definitely continue in May. So it can still be cool in June.
Summer is getting warmer
If you look at all the already available climate factors as well as the climate models, you can see that summer in Germany will definitely be warm. It doesn’t look like a standard summer. There is some doubt, but at least July and August will be summers. June and September, on the other hand, are somewhat uncertain.
Basically, there are still two different styles to consider this coming summer. But either way it looks good for July and August.
Two styles for summer
On the other hand, summer style could prevail in the last few years. This could mean a drop over Western Europe and a moderately high pressure over Central Europe. The pattern is supported by the fact that this pattern occurred exactly 17 of the last 23 summers. One is talking about the new summer here.
The plane is weak and there are strong movements in the meridian temperature. This means that warm air can travel farther to the north, and in turn, cold air can travel farther to the south. This pattern is also associated with global warming.
Cold point and weak jet
On the other hand, the temperature differences between the Arctic and the tropics are decreasing because warming is more pronounced at the poles. This results in a weakening of the plane, which matches perfectly with the weather pattern.
On the other hand, a cold point has been observed in the North Atlantic for years. This is an area with relatively cold surface water. One can establish a strong correlation between the cold waters and the low pressure regions off western Europe. One possible cause of a cold bubble is melting ice from the Arctic. But this has not yet been properly proven. But it is clear that summer will be different from what it was a few decades ago.
If it comes to new summer style, this also means warm summer, and maybe even hot summer. The climate models of northern Germany simulate slightly cooler temperatures.
A plane could get stronger again
But there were also very prominent outliers of this style. Among other things, 2013 and 2018. Exactly in these years there was also a polar vortex split and a cold spring, like this year. So another anomaly cannot be ruled out in 2021. This means that the plane will get stronger again in the summer. That means more unstable weather and more rain for Germany. But in 2013, July and August were very warm. Because the plane can also bring air from the southwest. However, in September, it was very humid at that time.
For now, the new summer style is likely. But it can also happen differently. However, either way, we can expect warm weather in July and August. If the new summer does indeed last, it could also be summer in June and September, but this is not certain. It is also not clear how long it will stay warm this fall. Everything feels like another year of La Niña in the Pacific. So the weather could be similar to last fall, but that’s a pretty rough first look.
But if you look again at the summer forecast, it is very likely that it will be a warm summer. By the way, as in previous years, heat waves are currently unrecognizable. But this may change in the coming forecasts.
Drought or flood
The issue of rain in the spring is also interesting. Analyzes of Lake Amersee showed that in years with low solar activity – like this year – floods occur in the Alpine region more than usual, so the rain forecasts are very interesting. The May-June forecasts show that it definitely won’t be very dry. This is also in line with the current soil situation in Europe. While it is very dry in the United States, there is no need to fear a drought in Europe this year – at least there is no drought on the horizon at the moment.
In addition, it will take a little longer for the Alps to melt a little longer this year. Since cold air comes to Germany again and again, snow can last for a long time at high altitudes.
In general, the signs can be said to indicate a flood in late spring or early summer. This does not mean that it should also happen. But the risk is higher than in previous years.
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The original version of this post comes from “The first summer trend: the new pattern could weaken airplanes and heat up Germany” The Weather Channel.