19:50 December 28, 2022
Despite Winter Storm Elliott raging across the US, gas prices are falling as weather models predict more warming in the US over the next 12 days. According to NatGasWeather forecasts, the improvement in weather conditions is expected to result in the lowest demand for natural gas in the United States in more than 40 years. Forecasters predict that freezing temperatures will retreat to Canada by January 8 in most southern states; The exception is the West Coast, where weather is likely to weaken as typical storms in the Pacific bring rain, snow and temperatures overnight.
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The latest weather data indicates that the warm weather will end on January 9th as cold air retreats into the northern US from Canada. In addition to Elliott’s impact on weather and gas demand, the massive winter storm has also affected natural gas supplies ahead. Tuesday’s preliminary production data indicated production of around 80-86 Bcf/d. While temperatures will continue to rise throughout the week, it’s too early to tell when production will rise above 100 Bcf/d earlier this month. However, we see that a significant drop in production in recent days to 80 Bcf/d has not prevented prices from falling below $5 as investors anticipate record heat in the US despite the onset of winter on the calendar.
Natural gas supplies are dwindling, but that hasn’t pushed up NATGAS prices amid lower demand forecasts. Source: NGI, EIA
The Nadgas-Prices are falling, reaching levels last seen in mid-March this year. The RSI indicator is nearing an oversold level of 28 points, signaling the potential for a dynamic recovery if forecasts prove wrong and meteorologists are surprised with lower temperatures. Source: xStation5 by XTB
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