But before you think about the end of the pandemic, you first have to deal with this wave – there was a spike on Wednesday. “We will see a moderate increase in the coming days,” Klimk predicts. “But because the numbers are already so high, even small growth means many infections in absolute numbers.”
It peaked this month
After all, Peter Klimeck also has good news: “We can see that the rate of increase is starting to slow down.” He predicts that the peak of the BA2 omicron wave will be passed this month – “as long as you don’t. It stimulates the virus by limiting further actions.”
The researcher expects relaxation in April. What makes him so sure? “We have several omicron waves so far – first the BA1 omicron variant, then BA 1.1., and now BA 2. But now we don’t see any new variant. So, we don’t assume that a new wave will come our way right away. In addition, we should The situation eases as a result of the recovery of a large number of people and the rise in temperatures.”
However, in April, it will not be possible to take the test very often. But given the sheer numbers, are the tests still worth anything?
Klimeck acknowledges that testing does not currently have a significant impact on what happens in the pandemic. “This is due to the characteristics of the omicron variant. The period between the point in time from which the virus can be detected until it begins to become infectious – the critical time period – is a maximum of one to two days. If a lot of tests are collected at the same time and therefore are not sensitive Equally, the test does not slow the wave down.”
In schools, numbers can only be reduced if you test daily and at the same time implement measures such as wearing masks and frequent ventilation. “But too many tests will overwhelm many areas,” Klimeck says.
Test more specifically
For the future, it is suggested that testing be restricted to facilities such as nursing homes and hospitals. People with symptoms should also continue to be tested.
However, he doesn’t think that restricting tests is a good idea at the moment: “I’d prefer to make it dependent on dynamic evolution, ie if the R value is much less than 1 over a longer period of time. Then you have leeway to pull more action. And when the numbers go down, The tests are less effective anyway, because the chance of finding someone without symptoms decreases afterward.”
If the numbers are really low, there are better ways to get an overview of the infection process, such as a sewage check.
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