Anthropic’s potential initial public offering is prompting Wall Street to look further into the future than usual when assessing the artificial intelligence company’s value, with investors and bankers focusing on projected revenue as far out as 2028, according to people familiar with the company’s financials.
The AI developer is forecasting roughly $190 billion to $200 billion in revenue for 2028, two people familiar with its finances said. The projection highlights the rapid expansion investors would need to factor into what could become one of the largest IPOs on record.
Anthropic Forecasts Major Revenue Growth by 2028
The 2028 forecast is significantly higher than Anthropic’s $47 billion revenue “run rate,” a measure reflecting its current pace of business, which the company disclosed as recently as May.
The difference illustrates the scale of growth expectations surrounding the company as it prepares for the public markets.
Bankers and investors are using enterprise value-to-revenue multiples based on future forecasts to assess Anthropic’s potential valuation, according to four people familiar with the process.
Revenue multiples are widely used to value fast-growing software companies that have not yet developed mature and predictable profit margins. However, relying heavily on projections two years into the future is less common.
AI Growth Makes Traditional Valuation More Difficult
The approach reflects both the speed of Anthropic’s expansion and the challenge of valuing an artificial intelligence company that continues to spend heavily on infrastructure.
Developing advanced AI systems requires substantial investment in computing capacity, model training, data infrastructure and highly skilled employees.
Those costs can put significant pressure on margins even as revenue rises quickly.
Investors are effectively betting that Anthropic’s sales will eventually grow faster than the expenses required to support its expansion. If that happens, the company could generate stronger margins as its business reaches greater scale.
Anthropic did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
AI Spending Has Become a Key Issue for Investors
Heavy investment across the artificial intelligence industry has increasingly attracted Wall Street’s attention.
The scale of spending required for AI infrastructure has contributed to recent pullbacks in several major technology stocks, including companies that investors may consider when evaluating Anthropic.
That creates an unusual challenge for the IPO. Anthropic operates in one of the fastest-growing areas of the U.S. technology sector, but its valuation must account for both its potential revenue growth and the enormous capital requirements associated with competing at the forefront of generative AI.
Other High-Growth IPOs Used Long-Term Forecasts
There are precedents for investors looking several years ahead when valuing rapidly expanding technology businesses.
Backers of Cerebras Systems cited expectations for 2028 revenue ahead of the company’s IPO this year, according to people familiar with the process.
SpaceX projections extended as far as 2029 before the company went public at a record valuation in June, the people said.
Those examples demonstrate how investors may increasingly rely on longer-term financial projections when current earnings or margins provide an incomplete picture of a rapidly expanding company’s potential.
Cloudflare, Palantir and SpaceX Seen as Valuation Comparisons
Finding appropriate publicly traded comparisons for Anthropic is another challenge as bankers prepare for the company’s analyst day.
Cloud infrastructure company Cloudflare, enterprise software and data analytics company Palantir and Elon Musk’s SpaceX are among the businesses being considered as reference points for Anthropic’s valuation, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Each provides a different comparison.
Cloudflare offers exposure to rapidly expanding cloud infrastructure, while Palantir has become one of the most closely watched U.S. software companies associated with artificial intelligence. SpaceX, meanwhile, provides an example of how investors have valued a fast-growing technology company operating in a capital-intensive sector.
None represents a direct equivalent to Anthropic, underscoring the difficulty Wall Street faces in establishing an appropriate valuation framework.
Anthropic IPO Could Test Wall Street’s AI Expectations
Anthropic’s projected $190 billion to $200 billion in 2028 revenue places considerable weight on the company maintaining rapid expansion over the next two years.
For investors, the central question will be whether that growth can ultimately translate into stronger profitability as the company continues spending heavily on computing infrastructure, AI development and talent.
The IPO could therefore become an important test of how much U.S. public-market investors are willing to pay today for anticipated growth in the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence industry.
William Faulkner writes for Social Post News, covering news, politics, business, technology, sport, entertainment, and lifestyle. He focuses on clear, reliable reporting and useful information, helping readers stay informed about current events, emerging trends, and stories that matter.
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