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All graphics on results and polls in the primaries

All graphics on results and polls in the primaries

The race for the White House begins with primaries in America. Polls already give an idea of ​​the prospects of the candidates.

Trump cheers his supporters in Iowa, where he is the favorite in the caucuses.

Imago/Zach Boyden-Holmes / www.imago-images.de

This year's presidential election in the United States begins on January 15. In Iowa, small groups of Republican-leaning voters gather in schools, churches and multi-purpose halls in the evenings to debate and vote on the candidates. Results are expected on Tuesday morning European time.

While the results are by no means representative of the entire United States, they may be an initial test of sentiment. If you believe the polls, Donald Trump is firmly in Iowa. About 50 percent voted for the former president, with his rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley getting less than 20 percent.

Trump leads in Iowa

Respondents' willingness to vote in the Republican primary in Iowa, in percent

Next up is the New Hampshire primary on January 23rd. It's a little more encouraging that Nikki Haley has clearly been able to stand out from the competition in the past few weeks in the polls, now holding 30 percent. Trump is the favorite here as well. With 22 representatives, the member state is not particularly decisive.

Nikki Haley catches up in New Hampshire

Respondents' willingness to vote in New Hampshire's Republican primary, by percentage

On February 24, South Carolina will elect 50 delegates. Nikki Haley was the governor here from 2010 to 2017. But the party base in his home state appears to be behind Trump. The gap between the controversial former president is currently 25 percentage points in the poll.

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Haley has yet to win in her home state

Respondents' willingness to vote in the Republican primary in South Carolina, in percent

The results in these three states will be decisive for Haley's nomination chances. If he defies Republican expectations and builds enough “momentum” for his nomination, he could draw votes from anti-Trumpers within the party base come Super Tuesday on March 3.

On this day, Republicans will vote in 15 states and the territory of American Samoa, as well as big states like Texas and California.

When will Republicans choose their nominee?

Time for the 2024 Republican primaries

However, Haley still doesn't have much of a chance of being nominated for the party's presidential nomination. Trump's lead nationally is very high. Currently, more than 60 percent of Republicans want to see him as the candidate against Biden. As 2023 progresses, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' prospects have also worsened.

Trump could break away from DeSantis

Respondents' willingness to vote in Republican primaries, in percentage

In mid-July, Republicans will officially choose their nominee at their national convention. A lot can happen between now and then, but Trump is still the clear favorite.

Democrats are considering Joe Biden as their 2024 candidate. If Trump can win against the competition within the party, he will almost certainly have a chance against the incumbent. The two are currently neck and neck in the national elections. However, individual member states and electorate votes are decisive for election results. Here again, Trump and Biden are lying According to the cooking report Approximately the same.

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Trump has a chance against Biden

Intention to vote in the November election between Trump and Biden, as a percentage of those surveyed

In addition to political factors, health and legal factors can also prevent this fight. Both Trump (age 77) and Biden (age 81) claim to be in excellent health, but health risks increase and physical and mental performance decline with age. Trump is also mired in legal trouble. The Supreme Court wants to decide on February 8 whether he can be disqualified from the election due to his role in the capital attack on January 6, 2021. It was one of his many legal troubles.