There is more confidence in growth prospects in the US than in Europe.
When will the global recession end? Preliminary purchasing managers’ indices for November provide the first signals that Germany is bottoming out. But overall they are still not promising.
Economists need more to improve their economic expectations. Because they point clearly downwards to Europe. The chart shows how expectations for average real economic growth for the coming year have developed through 2023.
In the first half of the year, forecasts for both the European Union (EU) and the USA were consistently revised downwards. Growth prospects for 2024 have worsened, pushing the economic turnaround further into the future.
This applies to the European Union until the end of the current period. In October, the median of consensus economic forecasts for the EU was 0.6%, half of what was predicted at the start of 2023.
However, predictions now differ significantly. Since September, economists have continued to raise their forecasts for US economic growth.
Andreas Neinhaus He has been an editor at FuW since 1997 and writes on macro topics, particularly interest rates, currencies and impact on the economy. After studying management science at the University of Konstanz and completing his PhD, he worked in economic research at Credit Suisse. He lives in Rome.More info