“The U.S. economy will fall into recession next year, according to 70 percent of higher education economists surveyed by the Financial Times (FT),” the analysis said.
“A recent survey conducted in conjunction with an initiative on global markets at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business indicates that the Federal Reserve’s efforts have accelerated efforts to curb inflation, which is at an all-time high for the world’s largest economy, after the fastest recovery in history.”
Nearly 40 percent of all 49 respondents expect the National Bureau of Economic Research – an arbitrator when the recession begins and ends – to report a recession in the first or second quarter of 2023.
One-third believe the decision will be delayed until the second half of next year.
Most economists now expect core inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, to be above 3 percent by the end of 2023, compared to the February survey.
Of those polled in June, 12 percent thought such a decision was “very likely” compared to 4 percent the previous year.
Jonathan Wright, an economist at Johns Hopkins University, said significant optimism about inflation and growth was stagnant, although the situation was very different from the 1970s. High inflation and recession “.
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