Weather models are speaking plain language this year. For now, it will still be cold. The mid-range forecasts of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) show even below average temperatures through the end of May.
Cold weather until mid-May
However, it is worth taking a closer look. Because mid-term forecasts are usually group accounts. Group accounts not only simulate the operation of a single model, they simulate as many as possible – with EZWMF, for example, there are 51 calculations. All efforts are made because small changes in the initial state lead to completely different results. This is also known as the butterfly effect. However, if you have a group account, you can specify the possibilities. Because you can summarize similar results and see which solution is calculated most often.
And with the current forecast, it is very likely to remain below average until May 17th. As of May 17, total forecasts still indicate extremely cold weather, but there are also strong signs of warming from the southwest. This means that after Glacier Saints, the likelihood of warm weather increases dramatically.
Polarjet is recovering – but only slightly
High-pressure regions dominated the weather in April. The polar plane fell asleep at the beginning of April and has not been seen since. You notice this slowly in the lack of rain. Because with the planes, the areas of low pressure and the rain come to Germany.
The forecast for the next few weeks shows a weak aircraft recovery, but a really strong signal is indistinguishable. This matches well with statements that it tends to be very cold until mid or late May. Because in addition to rain, powerful jets also produce more balanced temperatures. So it will not be cold at night.
Winter is over in the Arctic
A look at the precipitation forecast for the coming weeks shows: It will probably rain a little again, but the sun’s rays will continue to dominate. However, more rain will be required, as it is already very dry.
So we are waiting, so to speak, for the plane to regain its speed again. On the other hand, there are good signals from the North Pole. Winter has ended since April 25. At least the polar vortex is no longer detectable. It always takes about two to four weeks before there is a little bit of cold air from the north. Then the atmosphere finally switches to summer mode. It takes some time to set steady conditions, but then the cold weather will pass.
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