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Review and direction of the second half

The meteorological summer is at least halfway over, so now is the time to take stock and take a look at the second half.

June review

The first month of summer is already history and im spring The expected distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies fits well with Central Europe. From the Iberian Peninsula through France to Central Europe, several thunderstorms brought an above-average amount of rain, but – as is often the case in summer – with very large variations over a very small area. However, in the steppes of the Adriatic and Pannonia, constant drought has become a problem.

Temperature deviation from the average climate in June 2021 © ECMWF Copernicus

In terms of temperature, June was generally above average with the biggest being the positive anomaly from the Mediterranean to the Baltic states, where the month was often more than 2 degrees warm compared to the long-term average. A slight negative temperature anomaly was recorded only in the Atlantic and the Bosphorus region.

June precipitation deviates from mean © NOAA-PSL

Second half preview

What’s next in summer 2021? According to the updated quarterly forecast for the second half of summer, the situation will now change somewhat. Accumulation of areas of high pressure over the western Mediterranean should often create dry conditions here and thus increase the risk of drought. Because of the high altitude in the western Mediterranean, which is often present, the Atlantic fronts often cover only the northwestern half of the continent and only cause many thunderstorms in the eastern European direction.

Projected temperature deviation for the period from July to August and September © ECMWF Copernicus

Depending on this location, the rest of the summer, especially in the North and Baltic Seas, in the Baltic States and in the North Atlantic, can be on average warm or even very cold. However, the largest positive temperature anomaly can be expected in the Mediterranean. From Spain to southern France and Italy to the Balkans, the second half of summer should be about 1 degree warm compared to the long-term average.

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The expected probability of whether the summer will be too dry (yellow hues) or very wet (green hues) © ECMWF Copernicus

Cover Photo: Trend for the second half of summer – UBIMET