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The coldest spring in 30 years? Weather stats still have surprises in store – meteorologist

An assessment of the measuring stations showed that April 2021 was the coldest in Germany in 44 years. Then, the photo was taken from where April left off and it covered large parts of the country with unusually low temperatures. If the average temperature remains unchanged in the remaining days of the month, it will be the coldest May since 1991.

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If you compare the average temperatures for the first 23 days in May, you can see that they were much cooler in 2019. That was Summer of the Century! In 2010, the average temperature in May was also lower than in 2021. May 2021 no longer looks very cold. Why does it look like this to us anyway?

Unusually cold spring

The special thing about this year is that two months in a row have been absolutely amazing. The average temperature from the beginning of April to the 23rd of May was last very low in 1991. Starting in 1991, you have to look back 50 years to find a cooler average temperature for this period.

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However, if you look at the temperature trend throughout the spring – starting with early spring on March 1st – there is a surprise. Because it shows that Spring 2013 was colder than 2021. Before that, there was a relatively cold spring in 1987. Depending on the definition of the period, it shows again that the evaluation can be dramatic or less dramatic.

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The long-term average temperatures from 1961-1990 as well as from 1991-2020 show that the spring of 2021 will be extraordinarily cold anyway. The special thing about this spring is that the temperatures are consistently below average. A similar trend was last observed in 1991 and that is now 30 years ago.

A Very Cold Case in 2021 – Statistics and Climate Change

If the seasons behave differently from what you expect, climate change is often implemented. However, the fact is that if the spring is very cold, you cannot infer climate change. If you look at the Climate Series, the Cold Cold is statistically overdue. So you don’t have to worry about the cold spring of 2021, but it can’t be used as an example against climate change either. Because a very cold year does not change anything in the upward direction in the average temperature.

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