In short: Until the Ice Saints (May 11-15) it will be very cold. Eisheilgen could make a precision landing this year. The Farm Law says that after a cold woolly, she remains free of frost. This year is Sunday May 16th. And there are very strong indications that it might be a good fit.
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The polar vortex sends out another flow of cold air
The mid-range forecast from the EZMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) shows extremely cold temperatures in Germany as of May 18th. But since these are a weekly forecast, you may be warmer in the second half of the week compared to the first half of the week. So the Ice Saints could be right.
There is also another strong reason to cause it to cool down again. Because the temperatures in Germany are below average. The cold air kept coming to us because it wouldn’t be cold on its own at this time of year. The polar vortex will send us a whiff of cold air in May, one last time before summer. The cold air is fleeing the Arctic for the last time, which is already certain.
The weather changes to summer mode
The polar vortex will collapse on Sunday at the latest. He is dying, so to speak. There is a reversal of winds over the North Pole and strong warming. This is also normal. Ultimately, this is due to the position of the sun, because sunlight returns to the Arctic atmosphere, which boosts ozone production at high altitudes and leads to significant warming. The last resort for the winter and the whole atmosphere goes into summer mode.
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This effect is assessed differently from the collapse of the polar vortex in mid-winter – as it did in February of this year. If the polar vortex dissolves in the winter, other processes are to blame, such as the very strong high-pressure regions replacing the polar vortex. The polar vortex becomes unstable as a result of the Earth’s rotation. Yet both processes have one thing in common: Arctic air is pushing south in both cases – albeit to varying degrees. However, we have to deal with the cold again.
Incidentally, the polar vortex is lasting two weeks longer this year than it normally would be. The polar vortex usually ends between April 10 and 15. It is time this year on April 25th. Thus the final cold air outbreak will come later than in previous years.
Cold air is running out of breath
There is also good news because the cold air is running out of breath. There is another risk of light frost or frost, maybe a few single freezing showers and at high altitudes it will be cold again. Snowfall also cannot be ruled out, but the snowfall limit should not drop below 1,000 meters.
The cold air that comes from the north is more arctic spring air than a brutal whip of cold air. After this expected recession in Eisheilgen, winter is now over. The polar vortex enters a summer sleep and makes the first repairs in late August or early September. Until then we will have peace from the cold air coming from the north and summer may come.
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