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American midterms: Trump votes and scolds

Trump complained about voting irregularities. In Detroit, voters were told at the polls that they had already cast their ballots: “It’s happening in large numbers, in other places. Resistance, resistance, resistance!” Trump wrote Tuesday on Truth Social, the social media site he co-founded. Trump offered no evidence for his claims.

Looking at the US state of Arizona, Trump said electronic voting machines would not work in conservative districts. Bill Gates, chairman of the Local Elections Commission, said “about 20 percent” of Maricopa County’s 223 polling places had technical problems with the machines. However, failed machines do not affect the validity of the exam. According to the authority, it set up “secure boxes” where the ballots will be kept until they are counted.

Vote for internal contestants

To this day, Trump, 76, refuses to concede his 2020 election loss to Democrat Joe Biden and continues to claim that he was robbed of victory by substantial voter fraud. In this case, on January 6, 2021, the Capitol in the US capital Washington was attacked by Trump supporters. Many died.

Trump said he previously voted for Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. DeSantis, 44, is considered a potential 2024 presidential candidate and Trump’s biggest internal challenger, repeatedly hinting at his own candidacy and most recently promising a “very big announcement” on Nov. 15.

Polls show a Republican majority

According to polls, former President Trump’s opposition Republican Party is likely to win control of the House of Representatives. They have a majority chance in the Senate, and some very close results are expected. The election will upend all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats.

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Several Senate races in the states of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia are very close. So far, Democrats have only a razor-thin majority in the Senate. Losing both chambers of Congress would make it more difficult for US President Biden to govern, as Republicans could completely block his reform agenda.

Photo series with 3 images

Graphics: APA/ORF.at; Source: Real Clear Politics

A graphic about midterms in the US

Graphics: APA/ORF.at; Source: Real Clear Politics

Intermediate graphic

Graphics: APA/ORF.at; Source: Gallup

Key Modules

The results of a few specific blocks can tell where the journey is headed. One of them is an election district in Cary, Indiana, where Democrat Frank Mirvan must defend his seat in the House of Representatives against Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green. In studies, Mirwan was clearly ahead early on; Since the summer, however, the Republican Party has been green.

If Mirwan loses, it could be an early sign of a ‘red tide’. In this case, American analyst David Wasserman said on Twitter that the Republican Party can get more than 20 seats in the House of Representatives.

Wasserman sees a similar situation for constituencies in the US east coast state of Virginia. There, MP Abigail Spanberger faces Republican Yesley Vega. According to Wasserman, a Spanberger defeat could mean a major Republican victory in the House of Representatives.

“Red Tide”, Blue Strength

It will have even greater significance if Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton loses. He is running in Virginia, an electoral district south of the US capital Washington. If suburban Democrats pull back, it could mean a tough election night, Wasserman said. If Wexton loses, “Republicans could take the largest majority of the postwar era,” the analyst said.

An announcement

ORF.at counts with a live ticker from midnight on election night and the day after the decision.

Whether Democrats can maintain or expand their majority in the Senate will be seen early in Ohio and North Carolina. Former US President Trump had strong results in Ohio when he lost in 2016 and 2020. However, the Senate candidate he supports, JT Vance, is a strong challenger to Democrat Tim Ryan. Forecasts point to a close finish.

In North Carolina, there is a tight race between Republican Ted Budd and Democrat Cheri Beasley. Republican Senator Mark Rubio is considered a sure-fire winner in Florida. A strong performance by his fellow Democrat, Val Demings, could be the harbinger of a good statewide election night for Biden’s party.

Governor and Magistrate Elections

It is not clear when it will become clear who will hold the majority in the Senate and House of Representatives in the future. In the House of Representatives, it could be decided on election night. For the Senate, it can take days, or even weeks in extreme cases, for a winner to be decided. More than 45 million people voted before Election Day. There were about 39 million early voters in the 2018 midterms, compared to 20.5 million in 2014.

Governors of 36 of the 50 states and other representatives at the state level are also elected. Vacancies on the courts, including the Supreme Courts of these US states, will also be filled – considered key decisions on the future of the United States.

What is at stake for Biden?

Although Biden is not on the ballot, the results of the midterms will affect the president’s ability to act in many areas. If Democrats lose their majority in Congress in the midterm elections, Republicans can block legislative proposals, making it more difficult to implement major bills announced during Biden’s tenure.

ORF Analysis: Is Biden Threatened With Defeat?

According to polls, Democrats are likely to lose at least one of the two chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections. ORF reporter Inka Pieh explains what such a loss would mean for US President Biden.

Personnel decisions—such as federal judges—must be confirmed by the Senate. Of course, Biden’s proposals could be rejected. In addition, Republicans may launch investigations or even impeachment proceedings against members of Biden’s cabinet.

A difficult political environment

Biden is also on the defensive about his candidacy for the next presidential election in 2024. It’s not new for incumbent presidents to lose votes in midterm elections. But the political climate in the US is particularly harsh. Not least from the events surrounding the storming of the Capitol in January. More than half of Republican candidates are questioning the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

A graphic about midterms in the US

Graphics: APA/ORF.at

In a ZIB2 interview, political scientist Michael Vers emphasized the democratic-political significance of the upcoming elections: “There are almost 300 candidates in the Republican Party who say that Joe Biden is not the legitimate president of the United States and that he stole the election. success Of those, at least 170 to 180 will be elected in safe Republican districts and hold seats in the House and Senate. These people also have to deliver on the basis of their campaign.

Political Scientist Verses in the American Middle Ages

Georgetown University political scientist Michael Vers analyzes America’s mood ahead of the midterms.

So the fear of radicalization of radical politicians is high – commissions of inquiry, perhaps impeachment proceedings and further siege policies, which will certainly continue to contribute to the delegitimization of democratic institutions.