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The SPD extends its lead over the union ahead of the Bundestag elections

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Three weeks before Germany’s general election, the Social Democrats and Chancellor’s candidate Olaf Schulz have consolidated their lead over conservative union parties, according to a survey by Bild am Sonntag newspaper. The Social Democrats gained 1 percentage point from the previous week and are now 25 percent. The CDU and the Christian Social Union, along with their candidate for chancellor Armin Laschet, scored 20 percent, one point lower than last week.

In third place, German Green Party candidate Annalena Barbock lost one point, according to the INSA survey institute, and is now at 16 percent — followed by the Free Democratic Party, which remained unchanged at 13 percent. According to opinion researchers INSA, the right-wing populist AfD at 12 percent and the left at seven percent could each get one point. The other parties combined amount to seven percent (minus 1).

Several surveys by other opinion research institutes have recently seen SPD rise—and in some cases long before CDU/CSU. For example, the ZDF “Politbarometer” published Friday by the Election Research Group sees the Social Democrats at 25 percent, while the Union is at 22 percent.

Opinion polls are generally fraught with doubts. Among other things, declining party relations and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it difficult for opinion research institutes to evaluate the data collected. In principle, polls only reflect opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the outcome of the election.

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There are significant differences in the evaluation of different theoretical alliance options. According to the survey, the coalition of the Social Democratic Party, the Union and the Free Democratic Party is 39 percent good for Germany, and 44 percent bad. Another large coalition would be good for 35 percent, but bad for 48 percent. Of the so-called traffic lights coalition made up of SPD, Greens and the FDP, 29 percent said it would be good for the country—53 percent thought it was bad. He found Red, Green, and Red 27 percent to be good, and 55 percent to be bad. The “Jamaica coalition” of the Union, the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party was rated the worst: 23 percent rated this alternative as good, 58 percent as bad.

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