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Trump wants to be back in the White House

Trump wants to be back in the White House

Donald Trump wants to be re-elected as the President of the United States. If he wins, will he go after political opponents and retaliate? At least that's what he declared. (Photo Alliance/AP/Charlie Neibergall)

The next US presidential election is scheduled for November 5, 2024, and Donald Trump wants to know it again. But first he must become the Republican presidential nominee and win the primary. The first is in Iowa on January 15th. A so-called Super Tuesday, when multiple states vote in parallel, takes place in early March. The official appointment will take place at the party convention in mid-August.

There is now little doubt that Donald Trump will run for the Republican nomination again. Not all of his rivals come close to his popularity ratings – Trump has been beating them in the polls for months. He doesn't need to participate in televised debates where Republican presidential candidates compete against each other for voters' support. It would be a big surprise if Trump doesn't win the primaries.

Who goes to the White House will be decided especially in so-called swing states. These are states where it is traditionally unclear whether Democrats or Republicans will ultimately come out on top.

According to a survey from November 2023, Trump has a good chance of gaining points in swing states. Trump leads Biden in five of the six most important battleground states, according to a New York Times poll in conjunction with Siena College.

The incumbent was only ahead in the state of Wisconsin. In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump was in pole position, each by between four and ten percentage points. Biden won all six states against Trump in the 2020 US presidential election.

Both Trump and Biden are unpopular with voters

According to the poll, both candidates are unpopular. Biden's biggest disadvantage is his age: 71 percent of those surveyed said the 81-year-old Biden is too old to be an effective president. With Trump, however, 39 percent see that — even though he's only four years younger than Biden. Respondents also favored Trump in policy areas such as the economy, immigration, and national security.

Surveys like this are too late to describe real trends. But the widespread belief in liberal circles that Trump would discredit himself with his unpredictable and narcissistic behavior is dashed. The chances of Trump becoming the next president of the United States are slim to none.

A president with more power and a non-confrontational staff: This is how conservative groups envision governing Washington in the future. More than 80 conservative organizations have come together to prepare for Donald Trump's second term in office.

They call it the project 2025 Presidential Transition Planwhich Conservative think tank Heritage Foundation Coordinated and directed by former Trump administration officials. 22 million dollars is available for this. Basically, the goal is to create a government-in-waiting — either for Trump or for another person who is loyal to some of the policies of the Republican nominee and can defeat President Joe Biden.

However, the pitfalls of Trump's first years in office should be avoided. After the 2016 election, the president's team was ill-prepared, Trump's cabinet nominees struggled to be confirmed by the Senate, and policy proposals faced opposition — in the House, from public officials and even from Trump appointees who resented their boss's actions.

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The idea behind the project is to put in place an infrastructure on day one that can be used against anti-government bureaucracy. Among other things, laying off tens of thousands of central government employees is on the agenda. They should be replaced by loyal and willing employees.

“Conservatives flood zone”

“We need to fill the zone with conservatives,” said Paul Dance, the program's chairman and a former Trump administration official Nearly 1,000 pages of detailed manual Describes what is to be achieved and how. “The president's first day will be a wrecking ball for executive government,” believes Russ Vodt, president of the conservative Center for Renewing America.

The Heritage Coalition's views are a mix of traditional conservative positions and the edgy views that have emerged in the Trump era. There is talk of reforming the Ministry of Justice, which aims to curb its independence. While presidents in the past have typically relied on Congress to implement plans, “Plan 2025” primarily gives the White House broad powers to act alone.

Donald Trump is in legal trouble; There are many cases against him. Among other things, Trump must answer in federal court in Washington for his role in efforts to influence the outcome of the 2020 election and his supporters' attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

But whether that will prevent him from re-entering the race for the White House as the Republican presidential nominee is questionable. His lawyers are primarily trying to delay the hearings, and some of the issues will first be decided by the US Supreme Court.

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The same applies to efforts to exclude Trump from the primaries. Efforts to do so failed in Michigan and Minnesota, but decisions were made in Colorado and Maine that Trump would not be allowed to run in their respective primaries due to Trump's role in storming the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

Ultimately the Supreme Court has to decide

This was justified by the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution, which provided that no person could hold public office if he took an oath to defend the Constitution and took part in an “insurrection or insurrection” in defense of the Constitution.

However, nothing was finally decided. The Supreme Court has scheduled a Feb. 8 hearing to hear the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to remove Trump from the ballot. The decision was put on hold by judges in Colorado because of its fundamental importance until the legal issues were finally clarified.

Trump's lawyers appealed the exclusion in Colorado. It's not yet clear when the Supreme Court will issue a ruling, but it will have long-term significance as it applies not only to Colorado, but to other states as well. The Supreme Court's majority is made up of conservative justices, three of whom were nominated in Trump's first term.

In Maine, the election official decided Trump would not be allowed to run there. His lawyers appealed the verdict to the state Supreme Court. Trump's name will remain on the ballot in every state pending a Supreme Court ruling.

After winning the 2016 election, Trump had no plan when he took office. He tried to treat America like his companies. Things look different this time. In the past, Trump has often spoken highly of authoritarian leaders and heads of government and their power. His campaign agenda included an expansion of executive power and unprecedented interventions in the justice system, as well as drastic cuts in public services.

He declared vengeance and his words spoke for themselves. “In 2016 I announced that I am your voice. Today I am adding that I am your warrior,” Trump said in March 2023. “I am your justice. And I am your vengeance on the wronged and the betrayed.”

Trump accused some media outlets of “high treason.”

Trump has made several particularly hostile comments about the press in the past. He believes that channels like NBC News and MSNBC should be investigated for treason. The former president has also repeatedly and openly vowed to use the judiciary to take action against his enemies. Among other things, he wants to appoint a special prosecutor to prosecute Joe Biden and his family, whom Trump considers “the most corrupt president in the history of the United States.”

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In an interview on Univision, Trump also announced that he would ensure that those who attacked him as president were charged. In December 2023, he considered violating the constitution, arguing that what he said was electoral fraud “allowed the suspension of all rules, regulations and articles contained in the constitution”.

During Donald Trump's first term, experts advised the president. In his second term, Trump no longer wants to hear any constitutional or legal objections. He surrounds himself only with faithful believers. It's more dangerous the second time than the first, says Liz Cheney. The Republican and Trump critic warns that Trump has no one around to stop him.

Can separation of powers stop Trump?

Other experts believe that if Trump is indeed the US president again, the separation of powers in the US will thwart authoritarian aspirations. “In the United States, the legislative, executive, and judicial branches of government share government power. Both houses of Congress share legislative power with the president, and the courts can review laws. It takes a lot to make something truly authoritarian, radical, and lasting,” said Kevin Koser, a conservative political analyst at the American Enterprise Institute. said.

However, Liz Cheney has warned against believing that the US Congress will put Donald Trump in his place. The conservative politician has become a pariah in his party because of his opposition to Trump. Cheney told ABC: “He told us what he was going to do. People: Well, if he gets elected, it's not too dangerous because we have all these checks and balances — they don't understand how aligned the Republicans in Congress are right now. The Republicans who control Congress today. The party is working with Donald Trump.