The US midterm elections will be held on Tuesday. The first results for the midterms are expected on Wednesday evening at the earliest. The final decision on the majority in the US Congress cannot be known until days or weeks after the election.
According to polls, Republicans have a very good chance of winning a majority in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. In the Senate, on the other hand, things are likely to be tighter.
The first results in the midterm elections on Wednesday evening at the earliest
Because of the time difference, the first results in this country can be expected on Wednesday evening at the earliest. However, since dozens of races are expected to be close together, the United States is also preparing for a long election night. It may take days or weeks for the winners to be determined.
Significantly more Democrats vote by mail in the midterm elections
During the evening or night, there may be distorted impressions, especially at first. This is due to the way in which ballot papers received by postal voting are counted. Traditionally, this method has been used primarily by Democratic voters, while Republican supporters tend to go to the polls more directly on Election Day.
Postal vote counting starts at different times
Some countries are beginning to sort mail ballots early. Florida and North Carolina, for example, allow polling workers to take ballot papers from envelopes before Election Day and insert them into counting machines so they can start counting them quickly. This could result in Democrats initially gaining significant advances over the course of election night, which gradually fizzle out as election workers continue to evaluate ballot papers on the same day. In the United States, in such a situation, based on the party color of the Democrats, there is talk of “blue mirages”, blue mirages or delusions.
Conversely, there can also be a “red mirage” if the Republicans seem to have the advantage at first. This phenomenon can occur, for example, in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where poll workers are prohibited from opening mail ballot envelopes before Election Day. Then it takes longer to count them, which is why many Democrats’ votes only trickle down into election results later.
The midterm trend can start around 4am or 5am
The first wave of results should come our way on Wednesday between 01:00 and 02:00 CET. Because polling stations will then close in several states on the East Coast. The first trend can already be seen if Republicans are clearly expected to win in close races, such as the North Carolina Senate seat.
It could be really exciting around 4 or 5 a.m. CET, says political expert Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia. Because then polling stations in the Midwest were closed for a while. The Republicans may then have so much momentum that experts from the individual American media will dare to predict who will have control of the House of Representatives in the new Congress.
It was not possible to know the final result of the midterm elections until days after the elections
However, if the race for the House of Representatives remains tight as dawn nearly approaches this side of the Atlantic, and the forecast for a dozen hard-earned seats on the West Coast comes in, experts estimate it could be days before that. It is clear who will be in the future House of Representatives in power. In California, for example, it often takes weeks to count all ballots, as the state also accepts mail-in ballots if they are received days after the election, as long as the envelopes are mailed no later than Election Day itself, ie. November 8. Nevada and Washington do the same.
Georgia Senate Runoff Possible
As for the Senate, it may also take longer to decide on the presidency. Maybe even weeks. Because the deciding factor could be Pennsylvania, Arizona or Georgia. And in these states, polls indicate a tight exit. If Georgia, in particular, is close as expected and neither candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, the run-off will be automatically scheduled for December 6. This means that it may remain open until then, which party controls the Senate when the new Congress is sworn in on January 3, 2023.
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